Zimbabwe Politics - On the Eve of THE Congress

Twelve months ago, no one (not me at least) would have forecast that the Zimbabwean political game would be where it is now!

MDC (which ever version of it you pick - MDC-T, MDC-N, MDC-R, and who knows what else is in store, although I do not understand why we do not have an MDC-Z) is in disarray! Dare I say finished!

ZPF is riddled in factional politics premised on the succession debate. Many are hoping (or is it yearning/aspiring) that the congress will clarify (I liked the word elucidate in high school) issues and the country and in deed the economy can move forward. Various scenarios have been put forward by 'political analysts'.


Yours truly, being one such 'political analyst' cannot be left behind and therefore take this eve (before you through brickbats at me, eve also means 'verge', oh you thought 'evening before' only) occasion to hazard some forecast. This is important from a business planning point, this being the P in PESTLE or whatever version of it you prefer (aggrandize) to use. 

So here it is:

It is not possible for a congress to solve the factional issues of this magnitude, so do not expect any decisive (implementable and enforceable) position from this congress. In fact, the country will have to be saddled (perplexed) by the factional and succession fights (not debates) until 2018. What this means for Zimbabwe is that the economy will continue to hover between decline to stagnantion. Consequently GDP for 2015-18 will be between -2% and 2%, in short: plan for zero GDP until 2018! Not exactly what you want to hear. I know!

So now who is waiting for THE congress?? What congress?!

Your views are most welcome!

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