A SOBER VIEW: Ending The Zimbabwe War by Johnathan Shoniwa

A SOBER VIEW: Ending The Zimbabwe War

A lasting solution to Zimbabwe' s political, social and economic problems has evaded us for far too long a time now.  The ills that have bedeviled our motherland are well documented and it suffices here to mention that these have brought immense suffering on our people. What is scary, however,  is that it is possible to go for many more years with the status quo, a shuddering thought indeed.

So why has it been so difficult to extricate the nation from this shadow of doom? Why why why ? It is my humble submission here that the reason has been our failure to identify the real nature of our situation. This situation is that Zimbabwe is at war. The absence of typical physical military war operations deceives many in understanding the real situation in the country. The reality is that the country is, for all intense and purposes, at war and as such military war ending strategic considerations must be adopted to end that war.

As in most wars, it is possible to have other wars within a war. It is these other wars that we have preoccupied ourselves with and, consequently, we have been trying to solve these incidental wars/conflicts without giving any attention to the main war. Unfortunately, the emerging wars within the war often produce conditions at odds with meeting the main war's strategic objectives and therefore solving them does not solve the main war.

It is therefore important to revisit the strategic objectives/root cause of the Zimbabwe war. Only once this is understood fully can meaningful war ending tactics be designed. In this regard, it is my submission that the strategic objective of the Zimbabwe war is about land and pits the ZANU PF government  against Britain and its allies. The strategic objective of Britain and its allies is to ensure that the Mugabe led  government is taught a lesson, such that no other country the world over will ever follow in their footsteps. How would this be achieved? By making sure anything that the Zimbabwean government touches rots, and they fail and lose the popular vote. ZANU PF read this correctly as regime change agenda by the west. That's the war's strategic objective.

To solve the Zimbabwe crisis we must address this issue.

Both sides, Britain and her allies on one side and Zimbabwe government aka ZANU PF, must realize that to end the war they need to talk. As military strategists will tell you, fighting a war to the finish is a dangerous strategy, even when you think that your enemy is down and out. This is why, at the end of all these wars you have read about in history, there are treaties and pacts. Zimbabwe is no different: there must be a round table discussion to end the war. 

The internal problems represent the wars within the war and solving them will not bring a lasting solution.  The problem is assuming that elections on their own can solve and end the war if the opposition wins. Elections cannot settle a war. This is why past elections have failed to break the impasse. With this experience, I am surprised that we still naively believe 2018 elections can be any different. All wars end with a pact of some sort. The pact will define the rest, including elections footprint.

So then what should be the next step? What is required today is a two pronged peace settlement, firstly one pact that puts to rest the Britain and allies fight and the second part, an internal pact defining the way forward. It can be a two in one treaty. Alternatively a dual  pact could also work, with one treaty being conditional on the other. Elections on their own cannot solve the problems of this magnitude. This is aptly demonstrated by former National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice naively concluding "we fundamentally believe that when the grip of terror that Saddam Hussein's regime has wreaked on its own people is finally broken and Iraqis have an opportunity to build a better future, that you are going to see people who want to build a better future—not blow it up". As we all now know, this was never to be, and this is history to learn from.

So, as Zimbabweans, we should be pushing for the above talks, understanding that at this late hour, it is difficult for our leaders to be alert to the need for a negotiated settlement to end the war. As observed by Ross (2010) "by this point, leaders and publics have usually gotten so caught up in beating the enemy that they find it hard to switch gears and think clearly about constructing a stable and desirable political settlement. So they rarely handle endgame challenges well and usually find themselves at the mercy of events rather than in control of them". This is the situation we are witnessing today.

Why this piece should not be treated as any other is that if that above issues are not handled correctly the country will most likely deteriorate into full blown civil war and we all lose out. Contrary to popular belief, Zimbabwe is no immune to the typical civil wars that have wrecked havoc in Africa, destroying infrastructures and people's livelihoods and instead ushering in poverty, diseases and hunger where millions die of starvation and diseases. This is how serious we need to approach this matter. This is no social media drama, or about this faction or that faction, or about this flag or that flag, or about this pastor or that pastor, or about this advocate of that advocate. This is a life and death situation requiring that our leaders become more responsible and take a sober view of things. We ( all of us) should also stop urging them on in their child like fights that have inflicted so much harm on all our people.

I conclude by repeating for the sake of emphasis; the solution to Zimbabwe problems is a negotiated signed agreement ending the war and defining the way forward. Elections are perhaps the final step of the way forward but must be premised on a ceasefire and resultant pact(s). Fellow Zimbabweans , let's push our leaders to the negotiating table and not urge them in these wars. Go back to your history lessons and you will see that history is littered with Treaties, we urgently need the "Zimbabwean Treaty of 2017" backed by the "Comprehensive and Inclusive Political Agreement of 2017, Harare”.

Acknowledgements: 

1. How Wars End: Why We Always Fight the Last Battle;  Ross, G, (2010).
2. http://www.cfr.org/united-states/wars-end/p22995?excerpt=1

Johnathan Shoniwa, writes in his personal capacity and an can contact on jshoniwa@gmail.com